Metro Home Prices Climb to New All-Time High

Amidst staggeringly low inventory levels in much of the country during the second quarter, existing-homes sales cooled and home prices maintained their robust level of appreciation, according to the latest quarterly reportby the National Association of Realtors®. Last quarter, the San Francisco metro area joined the San Jose metro area for having a median sales price above $1 million.

The national median existing single-family home price in the second quarter was $269,000, which is up 5.3 percent from the second quarter of 2017 ($255,400) and surpasses last year’s second quarter as the new peak. The median sales price during this year’s first quarter increased 5.7 percent from the first quarter of 2017.

Single-family home prices last quarter increased in 90 percent of measured markets, with 161 out of 178 metropolitan statistical areas¹ (MSAs) showing sales price gains in the second quarter compared to a year ago. Twenty-four metro areas (13 percent) experienced double-digit increases, down from 30 percent in this year’s first quarter.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says this year’s spring buying season did not meet expectations, despite very strong demand. “The ongoing supply crunch affecting much of the country worsened for most of the second quarter, as the growing number of interested buyers in many markets overwhelmed what was already a meager level of available listings,” he said. “With not enough homes for sale, multiple bids caused prices to rise briskly and further out of the reach of some prospective buyers.”

Total existing-home sales², including single family and condos, decreased 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million in the second quarter from 5.51 million in the first quarter, and are 2.4 percent lower than the 5.55 million pace during the second quarter of 2017.

“Solid economic growth, a healthy labor market and the large millennial population should be driving home sales much higher,” said Yun. “As long as economic conditions maintain current levels, there’s still a chance for sales to break out this year. However, with mortgage rates trending higher, it will only happen if supply levels improve enough to cool the speedy price growth in a majority of the country.”

At the end of the second quarter, there were 1.95 million existing homes available for sale³, which was 0.5 percent above the 1.94 million homes for sale at the end of the second quarter in 2017. The average supply during the second quarter was 4.1 months – down from 4.2 months in the second quarter of last year.

The national family median income rose to $75,106⁴ in the second quarter, but overall affordability decreased from a year ago because of higher mortgage rates and home prices. To purchase a single-family home at the national median price, a buyer making a 5 percent down payment would need an income of $64,239, a 10 percent down payment would require an income of $60,858, and $54,096 would be needed for a 20 percent down payment.

“The unaffordable conditions in many of the largest metro areas – especially in the West – continues to be a growing concern for many middle-class households aspiring to buy a home,” said Yun. “Homebuilders, facing higher costs and labor shortages, are simply not producing enough affordable homes to satisfy demand. Local governments need to acknowledge this glaring issue and ease some of the zoning laws, permitting processes and regulations that are slowing construction.”

The five most expensive housing markets in the second quarter were the San Jose, California metro area, where the median existing single-family price was $1,405,000; San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, California, $1,070,000; Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, California, $830,000; urban Honolulu, $795,200; and San Diego-Carlsbad, $645,000.

The five lowest-cost metro areas in the second quarter were Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio, $94,400; Cumberland, Maryland, $94,900; Decatur, Illinois, $96,900; Elmira, New York, $106,300; and Erie, Pennsylvania, at $121,700.

Metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 61 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $248,200 in the second quarter, up 3.6 percent from the second quarter of 2017 ($239,600). Ninety percent of metro areas showed gains in median condo price from a year ago.

Regional Breakdown

Total existing-home sales in the Northeast were at an annual rate of 683,000 (unchanged from the first quarter of 2018) and down 8.9 percent from a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast was $288,900 in the second quarter, up 2.3 percent from a year ago.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales rose 1.6 percent in the second quarter but are 2.8 percent below a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest grew 3.5 percent to $210,600 in the second quarter from the same quarter a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South declined 2.7 percent in the second quarter but are 0.6 percent higher than the second quarter of 2017. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $238,500 in the second quarter, 4.0 percent above a year earlier.

In the West, existing-home sales in the second quarter decreased 4.1 percent and are 3.6 percent below a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West increased 8.3 percent to $403,300 in the second quarter from the second quarter of 2017.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

NOTE: NAR releases quarterly median single-family price data for approximately 175 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). In some cases the MSA prices may not coincide with data released by state and local Realtor® associations. Any discrepancy may be due to differences in geographic coverage, product mix, and timing. In the event of discrepancies, Realtors® are advised that for business purposes, local data from their association may be more relevant.

Data tables for MSA home prices (single family and condo) are posted athttp://www.realtor.org/topics/metropolitan-median-area-prices-and-affordability/data. If insufficient data is reported for a MSA in particular quarter, it is listed as N/A. For areas not covered in the tables, please contact the local association of Realtors®.

¹ Areas are generally metropolitan statistical areas as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. NAR adheres to the OMB definitions, although in some areas an exact match is not possible from the available data.

Regional median home prices are from a separate sampling that includes rural areas and portions of some smaller metros that are not included in this report; the regional percentage changes do not necessarily parallel changes in the larger metro areas. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Quarter-to-quarter comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns.

Median price measurement reflects the types of homes that are selling during the quarter and can be skewed at times by changes in the sales mix. For example, changes in the level of distressed sales, which are heavily discounted, can vary notably in given markets and may affect percentage comparisons. Annual price measures generally smooth out any quarterly swings.

NAR began tracking of metropolitan area median single-family home prices in 1979; the metro area condo price series dates back to 1989.

Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price often is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes. As the reporting sample expands in the future, additional areas will be included in the condo price report.

² The seasonally adjusted annual rate for a particular quarter represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative sales pace for that quarter was maintained for four consecutive quarters. Total home sales include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-operative housing.

³ Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).

Seasonally adjusted rates are used in reporting quarterly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, sales volume normally is higher in the summer and relatively light in winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and household buying patterns.

⁴ Income figures are rounded to the nearest hundred, based on NAR modeling of Census data. Qualifying income requirements are determined using several scenarios on downpayment percentages and assume 25 percent of gross income devoted to mortgage principal and interest at a mortgage interest rate of 3.9%.

NOTE: Existing-Home Sales for July will be reported August 22, and the next Pending Home Sales Index will be August 29; all release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.

Source: "Metro Home Prices Climb to New All-Time High; Rise 5.3 Percent in Second Quarter​"  www.nar.realtors®   (August, 2018)